And China has its own problems, including hugely problematic demographics and an export-fueled economy that is still highly dependent on trade with the West.

Your reasoning is based on narratives which I personally always discount.

Economists expect China to overtake the US economy in size by the 2030s. This can obviously either accelerate or decelerate and there will be hindsight reasoning in any case. Nevertheless, I don't see any of your narrative based arguments substantive.