Re:When might the world exceed 1.5C and 2C of global warming?
by fallingfrog on Wednesday August 25, 2021 @09:03PM
(#28309298)
Here’s the tl;dr:
“The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032.
The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.
In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.”
“The world will likely exceed 1.5C between 2026 and 2042 in scenarios where emissions are not rapidly reduced, with a central estimate of between 2030 and 2032.
The 2C threshold will likely be exceeded between 2034 and 2052 in the highest emissions scenario, with a median year of 2043.
In a scenario of modest mitigation – where emissions remain close to current levels – the 2C threshold would be exceeded between 2038 and 2072, with a median of 2052.”
Might get a couple of repeats of the mediaeval warm period before we drop into the next interglacial.
Ian Plimer reckons we'll be well on the way by 2800 when the ice cap moves south to covers the UK and Canada in a 2km thick ice layer.