It's just anecdata, but I've been using Mac laptops since the mid 90s, have never bought AppleCare, and have never regretted that. I've never had an out of warranty repair. On a couple I have replaced the battery myself after several years, at a cost much lower than what AppleCare would have been on that one machine. Yes, it's possible that some day I will end up with a lemon that needs a ton of work. But I think that over 20 years of savings on not buying AppleCare more than covers it (I would have bought a new machine before sinking in anywhere near $10k in repairs).