> If Macs had the reliability of iPads and iPhones it would make more sense to not get the extended warranty.

They do. People who don't have problems don't complain so you have to be careful basing your impression on what people feel motivated to mention.

it's true, ggp's claim of "20-30% chance you will have problems during those first years." is not based in data. if that was the rate, the cost of the extended warranty (apple care) would be much higher.

Obviously that was my personal anecdotal experience. Apple doesn't publish this data.

It was probably worse than 30% for the 2016 MBP models considering the keyboard issues though.

and further OP would never have been able to squeeze $10k of repairs/replacements out of an original $3k? outlay.