Its not my job to figure out "how safe" or "how certain", but I can definitely say with confidence that "more safe than harmful" and "more likely than not" are both really bad answers.
Re:FDA Approves First Covid-19 Vaccine
by sixstringtheory on Monday August 23, 2021 @07:32PM
(#28283400)
Unfortunately that is how the world works. It is not all or nothing, it is sets of probabilities and tradeoffs. You will rarely be able to solve complicated problems if your criteria are all or nothing. Few medicines are 100% safe. Nobody can predict the future. I'm sorry you're scared, so are many people, but this is the best option we have right now. I struggle to think of a better choice.
How long is sufficient? How large of a test group is sufficient?
In the "absolute" sense, there is no known drug that is safe. That is extremist thinking that only serves to muddy the waters of the actual debate, which should be: "how safe is safe enough?"
> we are not 100% sure it is safe
Note that "100% sure" does not mean "100%" safe. So how much safety do you need a 100% assurance for? How do you quantify the safety?
> that sounds really scary
How does this not just describe life in general? And how does that help policymaking? I don't think our species would have made it to the agricultural revolution if that was the overriding force for anything.
> it will not convince anyone who was not already convinced
This also strikes me as a poor consideration for any policymaker, as they likely know that at the onset to any such policymaking. This adds nothing new or interesting to the debate.