Re:Noted study in psychology fails to replicate, crumbles wi...
by elevenoh on Sunday August 22, 2021 @07:28AM
(#28264598)
I love polymarket. Prediction markets on topics like this are about the only way to discern truth from afar.
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Re:Noted study in psychology fails to replicate, crumbles wi...
by ImaCake on Sunday August 22, 2021 @08:30AM
(#28264935)
Wouldn't polymarket be subject to incomplete information? Thus leading to bias. Polymarket would just reflect the market sentiment given a fairly robust analysis of the available information, admittedly a pretty useful idea.
The other issue is that a very niche bet/topic might only have a small sample of analysts placing bets. This would mean you are subject to increased risk of bias from a single bad analyst. Or simply large variance due to small sample size.