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Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by OscarCunningham on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @02:06AM (#28206681)
The IQ figure of 230 can't be calculated on the usual scale with a mean of 100 and a standard deviation of 15, because if so it would mean that a world with our current population only had a 1 in 57 million chance of containing someone as smart as him. How could we possibly know enough about population statistics to know such a thing? Especially given that we do in fact have him in our world.
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by jhgb on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @08:15AM (#28209026)
Not only that but standard tests don't even reach reach the point where you can distinguish people near the top. If you have, for example, Raven's Advanced Progressive Matrices, you're dealing only with 48 questions. I vaguely remember that making four mistakes at the age of 17 means an IQ somewhere in the mid-150s (with a standard deviation of 15). If you can only distinguish three more values above 150s, I don't think you can reasonably reach even 200, not to mention 230.
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by btilly on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @01:19PM (#28212369)
You are right that no adult test will give an IQ that high.

However the original definition of IQ was in tests for children, and it was measured as mental age divided by physical age. Those tests are still used for children, and it IS possible for a 6 year old to get an official IQ of 230 on a test like the Stanford-Binet.

Which is exactly what Terry Tao did at the age of 6. Comparisons to adult tests may be problematic. But it remains an officially recorded IQ from a standard test.

Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by hyperpallium2 on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @08:08AM (#28208986)
His IQ is so high, it required several breakthroughs in neostatistics to properly measure it.
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by netr0ute on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @09:44AM (#28209759)
Is this satire?
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by hyperpallium2 on Wednesday August 18, 2021 @04:31AM (#28218847)
A joke.
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by TchoBeer on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @07:06AM (#28208541)
Just want to point out that of 7B people, about 122 of them are one in 57 million
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by jhgb on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @08:20AM (#28209065)
I think what he meant was that if Tao indeed has an IQ of 230, then on average one seven-billion-people-world out of every 57 million such (random) worlds contains one person as smart as Tao, or, that you need to sample something like 400 quadrillion people to find one such person. So your "122" figure doesn't seem to have any meaning here (at least to me).
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by OscarCunningham on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @08:32AM (#28209133)
Yeah, that's what I meant. (Except that the world population is now nearly 8 billion.)
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by jhgb on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @08:38AM (#28209176)
Sometimes the population of the world seems like the price of Bitcoin to me. Wasn't is 7 billion just yesterday?
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by andi999 on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @10:08AM (#28210021)
Yes, don't worry it will probably level at 11 billion
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by CRConrad on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @10:05AM (#28209983)
No, that was this morning. Yesterday it was six, and the other day four.
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by linschn on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @07:27AM (#28208693)
I think the parent's point is that you would need 50 something millions worlds like ours to find a single person with such a high IQ score.

I haven't checked the maths, but I know the Gaussian distribution is falling fast past a few standard deviation, so such a result would not surprise me.

Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by TchoBeer on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @07:42AM (#28208799)
I admit I'm not very informed about what IQ denotes, but wouldn't such a probability need to include the population of the world? Is that a parameter in the calculation of IQ?
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by btilly on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @02:45PM (#28213368)
Allow me to inform you.

IQ stands for "intelligence quotient".

It was developed as a ratio between mental age and physical age, times 100. So if you performed as expected, your IQ was 100. It was originally developed as a way of finding people who were behind, literally "retarded". However it also proved useful as a way of finding people who are intelligent as well.

After IQ tests were adopted in school systems, we found that they were approximately normally distributed with a mean of 100 (by definition), and a standard deviation of 15-16. For a variety of reasons (including identifying military recruits to train for specialized roles), there was a desire to have ability tests aimed at young adults. We developed those and scaled them to be explicitly normal with a mean of 100 and standard deviation of 15 or 16 (depending on the test). We also found that childhood IQ is a fairly good predictor of your later adult abilities, and therefore many of those tests are ALSO called IQ, even though there is no quotient involved.

On the adult tests, the tests do not scale out to IQ 230, nor is it likely that anyone is that many standard deviations out. But on the child tests, there is no problem scaling it. And it turns out that, in practice, the tails are heavier for the original type of IQ test. Which means that it is more common to find a 6 year old who performs at a 14 year old's ability, than a person who is over 8 standard deviations out.

Terry Tao had his IQ officially measured on a childhood test, not an adult one. However there has been no test since that is able to reliability measure his ability, particularly in math.

Consider, at 7, his SAT score put him well within the top 1% of college-bound kids.

At 10, his performance on the International Math Olympiad meant that he was literally in the top handful of high school students in the world.

Yeah, we don't have properly scaled tests for that.

Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by OscarCunningham on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @04:10PM (#28214295)
I'd add on top of that that these days adult IQ is instead defined to have a normal distribution with mean 100 and standard deviation 15. This is achieved by 'grading it on a curve'.

That's why my above comment was explaining why the 230 figure couldn't possibly make sense under the modern definition.

Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by btilly on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @04:28PM (#28214476)
An adult test can't give such a score.

However the Stanford-Binet test is still used for children. And in young children can still produce extremely high IQ scores.

Also note that while usually the standard deviation is made to be 15 these days, there are still tests, like the Binet and OLSAT, where the standard deviation is 16. That's why I said that the standard deviation depends on the test.

Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by GavinMcG on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @07:51AM (#28208872)
Theoretically not; IQ is ostensibly a statistical distribution, so it applies regardless of population size.
Re:The Inconsistency of Arithmetic (2011) by OscarCunningham on Tuesday August 17, 2021 @08:33AM (#28209138)
Yes, I used the world population figure when I was calculating that probability. But the world population size is not used in the definition of IQ itself.