Either way they can’t wring any more water from urban users. Rural users will get hit 90% faster than urban users as water becomes more scarce simply because they consume more now.

No- if water becomes more scarce, those with junior water rights don’t get water. The end. Those with senior rights get just as much as always. So the question is not whether you are ag or rural or muni, it’s how senior are the rights you hold?

The state will simply invest more to bore water down from Northern California. But that won't be enough to satisfy agricultural needs, and farmers will have no access to the water that is brought down. Heck, for urban users, even desalinization is economical, but not for agricultural users.