Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Global Warming

Re:Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Gl... by WJW on Saturday August 14, 2021 @12:53PM (#28182125)

While I don't doubt that there are indeed pathways to countering (most of) climate change, it seems like a very weird idea to try and predict more than 40 years into the future when we can't predict basic input parameters like oil demand even three months in advance. (OTOH, scientists are gonna science so you can't expect them not to make predictions of course)

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Re:Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Gl... by Retric on Saturday August 14, 2021 @01:46PM (#28182578)

Exxon for example made a shockingly accurate prediction of global warming 40 years out in 1982. Critically emissions is cumulative so your annual emissions estimate may be less actuate over time but the difference between say 2x and 3x baseline annual emissions in 39 years only represents a small chunk of the total.

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Re:Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Gl... by MauranKilom on Saturday August 14, 2021 @02:18PM (#28182821)

Visualized in this recent xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2500/

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Re:Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Gl... by whatshisface on Saturday August 14, 2021 @01:20PM (#28182340)

https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/world-oil-sup...

If you look at an actual chart of oil demand, it's not that hard to predict. Predictions good enough for profiting by trading are automatically difficult because of EMH. Predictions good enough for climate forecasting are not automatically difficult because the climate does not trade against you.

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Re:Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Gl... by SubiculumCode on Saturday August 14, 2021 @01:49PM (#28182605)

A rain drop forms in the sky and begins to fall. What path it takes, no one knows, but that it lands, we can surely assume.

Meaning. Some precise things are hard to predict, even when the outcome is easily knowable. We can't predict where an individual molecule of O2 will be in a minute, but we know that if there is a pressure differential between two rooms, they will begin to equalize.

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Re:Computer Models of Civilization Offer Routes to Ending Gl... by foo_barrio on Saturday August 14, 2021 @03:27PM (#28183300)

You don't need a stop watch to count days. Short term fluctuations and long term trends are sometimes really different to predict.

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