Occam's razor also says they aren't playing 11th dimensional chess, and that they just fucked up.
First they enable this technology to prove to the government that they can still scan for bad stuff, then they enable true E2E. I don't know if this is really their motivation but it sounds plausible to me.
EDIT: though you are right - they can please governments by making encryption useless while lying to people they still have it. Not sure that was your message though.
It seems plausible to me that Apple might believe some of their privacy conscious users would prefer this situation and hence "privacy" can be considered a plausible explanation for their actions here.
And is "pressure from the FBI" really the only reason why Apple might hold backup keys? Please sketch out your "lost device, need to restore from backup" user journey. For a real person, who has only an iPhone.
How about "enter your master passphrase to access your photos". Like literally all syncing password managers work, or things like Authy work to back up your one-time password seeds. It's not complicated.
This seems like an incredible reach to me.