Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Been Told

Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by newbamboo on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:14AM (#28155863)

Yes. The economic aspect has figured into calculations but there’s been no transparency around that fact. The news media are the worst in this regard. For those of us with very high risk loved ones who refuse to accept any facts that aren’t broadcast in full force through the usual dumbed down news outlets which I won’t name directly, it’s been a horrifyingly stressful month.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by HarryHirsch on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:24AM (#28155971)

the usual dumbed down news outlets

You mean NPR where recently Atul Gawande was calling the pandemic a "pandemic of the unvaccinated" and urged everyone to take the vaccine?

He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome. And you can still spread the virus in your community.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by chiefalchemist on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:00AM (#28156458)

"Pandemic of the unvaxinated" should be relabled "Pandemic of the non-existent leadership." You don't get someone on board by marginalizing and alienating them.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by jhayward on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:32AM (#28156086)

> He's right in a way, being vaccinated keeps you out of hospital, but it won't prevent you that much from catching the disease and developing post-covid syndrome

This is misinformation.

From the data we have available, vaccination prevents at least 80% of symptomatic infections with the Delta variant.

To characterize an 80% reduction in risk as “not that much” is simply trying to get people to give up on vaccines.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by HarryHirsch on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:44AM (#28156251)

You see papers claiming an effectiveness against symptomatic infection against Delta of ~ 50 %, and the rise of cases in Israel as well as the Provincetown outbreak should really make us concerned.

The vaccine still prevents hospitalization and death, so that's reason enough to take it. But on its own it isn't enough to get R_0 below 1. The way everyone is behaving, they are asking for outbreak after outbreak.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by newbamboo on Thursday August 12, 2021 @02:23PM (#28159685)

Yes, it’s at 47% now if I’m up to date.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by chiefalchemist on Thursday August 12, 2021 @04:32PM (#28161054)

Wasn't it up around 75% in Providence RI? Yes, an outlier but it's indicative of the potential.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by newbamboo on Thursday August 12, 2021 @05:56PM (#28162066)

Guess it’s 42% for Pfizer according to this preprint.[1] That’s July, so presumably even lower now. I thought I saw 47% somewhere more official but can’t find it now.

[1]https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.06.21261707v...

“ However, in July, the effectiveness against infection was considerably lower for mRNA-1273 (76%, 95% CI: 58-87%) with an even more pronounced reduction in effectiveness for BNT162b2 (42%, 95% CI: 13-62%).”

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by newbamboo on Thursday August 12, 2021 @02:21PM (#28159658)

Not naming names, but it’s easy to be left with the impression that if you are vaccinated and wear a mask, and your social circle are all vaccinated, that there is negligible risk. The media as a whole have not done much to rectify this false impression though they’ve chosen their words carefully to avoid being responsible for such misunderstandings. It’s frustrating to say the least. Reminds me of “Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.”

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by Mattasher on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:22AM (#28155955)

Sweden "went back to normal" a long time ago. Their Covid deaths rate is near zero. The "it's bad so we need to x" reflex, where x is any of masking mandates, social distancing, or especially take kids out of school, is anti-science and anti-human.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by sjg007 on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:55AM (#28157095)

Things are not normal in Sweden.

https://www.thelocal.se/20210812/in-numbers-covid-19-cases-c...

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by HarryHirsch on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:27AM (#28156013)

White exurban Atlanta (Randolph County) went back to normal as well, and now they are closing school because of a covid outbreak. I guess there isn't yet enough Delta variant in Sweden to make a difference. That, or the Swedish practice adequate mitigation (social distancing and masking).

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by halefx on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:42AM (#28157720)

I think you probably meant Cobb County, GA.

Randolph County, GA is farther away from Atlanta (~170 miles) than Chattanooga, TN (~120 miles). And as of 2010, Randolph County, GA was 61.8% black.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by HarryHirsch on Thursday August 12, 2021 @12:21PM (#28158201)

You are probably right. I mean the one near Marietta.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by Eldt on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:27AM (#28156012)

Didn't Sweden have a lot more deaths than their neighbours?

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by nradov on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:51AM (#28157045)

What do you count as a neighbor? Sweden is 39th in the world by per capita death rate. Many other European countries have higher death rates, including some countries that took more extensive pandemic control measures.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by voakbasda on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:46AM (#28156273)

Small price to pay for herd immunity and normalcy, if it actually worked.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by theodric on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:16AM (#28156640)

Spoken like someone who didn't die.

Also ghoulish beyond belief.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by nradov on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:21AM (#28157451)

So far 99.86% of Swedes didn't die of COVID-19.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by HarryHirsch on Thursday August 12, 2021 @12:34PM (#28158393)

How many have permanently reduced lung function, vascular disease or are living with long covid?

The death rate isn't the only metric, especially now with the vaccine.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by hellified on Thursday August 12, 2021 @09:56AM (#28156391)

I'm living in Sweden right now (US citizen). We wear masks. I've been working from home at my employer's request for over a year now. Office buildings are pretty empty, restaurants are still mostly depending on takeout revenue. Our vaccination rate is higher than in the US, and we're still being sensibly cautious to prevent another wave. Sweden isn't the free-for-all zone you've been led to believe.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by Mattasher on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:09AM (#28156578)

I was there at the end of 2020. Almost no one wore masks in Stockholm, even coming out of the subway less than 1%.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by nradov on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:46AM (#28156976)

You can't seriously expect people to continue social distancing. The virus is here to stay. It can't be eradicated because the vaccines aren't fully sterilizing and there are also animal hosts. The vast majority of us will eventually get infected regardless of what infection control measures we take. We'll just have to accept the risk and move on. Fortunately the vaccines are very safe and highly effective at preventing deaths.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by blueprint on Thursday August 12, 2021 @10:48AM (#28157006)

It's not that hard to go outside to cafes and still social distance - but people are not doing it. That's the difference.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by nradov on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:16AM (#28157382)

It's sad how some HN users seem to live in bubbles and are just completely disconnected from the way that most regular people live. Humans are social animals and most won't continue social distancing regardless of the consequences. There's more to life than cafes. Most of us don't even have an outdoor cafe nearby. Also weather is a thing.

You're welcome to complain that this is terrible and it shouldn't be that way. But at some point we have to put aside wishful thinking and exist in the real world.

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Re:Breakthrough Cases May Be a Bigger Problem Than You’ve Be... by blueprint on Thursday August 12, 2021 @11:21AM (#28157456)

Sure, base your entire argument on knowing absolutely nothing about me. You can still go to your climbing gym and climb and socialize without sitting 2 feet apart from all your friends. Like we used to do during the pandemic. But people are choosing not to do so now. There's more to life than HN usernames.

Welcome to the actual real world. Where you will eventually have to take responsibility for your choices despite your deep denial that your choosing to ignore social distancing is actually a subconscious reaction to feeling a lack of control or something and an intentional refusal to distance. That's why you politicize it.

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