I suspect they're afraid to, because someone will say "see, they said I could do this!" when what they actually said was that you are likely to get away with it for a short time.

Instead, they try to present absolute certainty that you have to do this in order to try to persuade those who aren't really listening and don't believe you. But those who aren't really listening and don't believe you are that way partly because they detect that you're talking way past your evidence.

("You" meaning politicians, not the parent, nor the reader.)