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Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by cwkoss on Tuesday August 03, 2021 @08:01PM (#28055766)
I don't find this persuasive at all.

Seems like they looking at this from an institutional perspective of hedging a single currency, looking for tight correlations over a short time periods. I don't care if there is a year or 5 of lag in either direction, or if gold outperforms currencies in a period in a non-correlated way. Funny that they quote Keynes because it seems like a superlatively Keynesian perspective on gold.

I'm concerned about the simultaneous inflation of all fiat currencies that arises from adversarial currency wars to game trade flows and reckless Fed policy devaluing what's in my bank account as a hidden tax on saving.

I want an asset that is resistant to devaluation of money and the historical examples of governments leaving the common man as bag-holders when a currency fails. I want something I could bury in the ground and feel confident that it'll be worth more when my grandchildren dig it up.

Maybe in a pedantic sense, "gold is a hedge against inflation" is "folklore" because the correlation is loose over short time periods, but over long time scales it works pretty well. Until asteroid mining is prevalent (and possibly beyond that) an ounce of gold will likely continue being enough to buy a good suit.

Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by throw0101a on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @08:19AM (#28060111)
> I don't find this persuasive at all.

IMHO you have the burden of proof backwards. Gold being a good hedge against inflation has been (hard money) dogma that's been repeated over and over, but what examination of this claim has there been?

> I want an asset that is resistant to devaluation of money and the historical examples of governments leaving the common man as bag-holders when a currency fails. I want something I could bury in the ground and feel confident that it'll be worth more when my grandchildren dig it up.

Is there evidence / supporting documentation that gold is that asset? If you believe that gold is that asset, why do you believe it? Is it just a matter of trust/faith of what you've heard, and the authorities that you heard it from, or did you examine some data to come to this conclusion?

Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by cwkoss on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @03:35PM (#28065230)
Gold has been valuable for about as long as recorded history. It has more evidence of value and a longer history of that evidence than probably any other asset in existence.

Since you're just tasking me with asking a bunch of easily google-able questions, I'm not sure what the point you're trying to make is. Are you just being contrarian, or is there a different asset that you think is a better durable store of value, or do you disagree with the concept of durable value?

Feels like you have a dogmatic repulsion to gold, and I don't understand why.

Re:Entire German bond yield curve back in sub-zero territory by throw0101a on Wednesday August 04, 2021 @04:59PM (#28066225)
Gold has been used as money in many places for a long time. It hasn't been the only form of money, and people stopped using it and went back to it at times (China flip-flopped).† But it is generally no longer used as money in the modern world: who uses it to buy groceries, or cars, or land? It's mostly used as a store of value: people generally trade cash/fiat for gold because they think they'll get cash/fiat back for it at some later date. There is little in gold as gold that is useful to most people (maybe some industrial process).

As the papers that the podcast pointed to indicate, there is nothing special about gold in protecting against inflation. The price fluctuations of gold, relative to USD, seem to be more crazy than any inflation most people have seen or are likely to see. Most people aren't going to experience crazy inflation unless there's some other crazy things happening in their country/area:

* https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1799102

Per the research done for the podcast, there doesn't seem to be anything special about any asset class that would protect you better than any other asset class.

I think aurum is a fine element, as are argentum, cuprum, platinum, etc. It's just whenever finance (and especially inflation) comes up there's all this talk about gold and I have no idea why. Just because it was used as money in the past, and there was for a time a link between modern cash and gold (as a kind of 'compatibility' layer), does not mean there is any point in treating it as special now. It certainly can be used as a store a value, but why is it better than anything else?

† The Aztecs didn't find it anything too special: it was shiny and flexible, so they used it simply for personal adornment (jewelry).