Re:The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
by reducesuffering on Monday August 02, 2021 @10:34PM
(#28045145)
See North and South Dakota, who after initially receiving a first huge wave before there were vaccines, never encountered any significant second wave. They are the best candidates I've seen for a possible herd immunity all the way back to December.
Re:The UK’s delta surge is collapsing
by owenversteeg on Monday August 02, 2021 @10:45PM
(#28045205)
Interesting! That does look promising. South Dakota has 762k people and 125k positive tests. The CDC assumes that 1 in 4.2 infections were reported, so that would be 525k people infected total. 52.8% of people got vaccinated. Assuming there's no correlation between getting vaccinated and getting infected (which I'd assume isn't 100% correct), you can assume that of the 295k uninfected, 156k got vaccinated. So that'd be a total of 525k infected+156k vaccinated and not infected = 681k = 89.4% immunity.
This argument was made many, many times over the past year and a half by people insisting that <their area has hit herd immunity and everything is fine and we can fully re-open>.
Inevitably, like clockwork, the wave of COVID that would follow would dwarf the previous one.
The only thing that has broken this pattern has been mass vaccinations. It seems that high rate of antibody sero-prevalence in the population only protects you from COVID on paper.