Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases model:
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/...
That's showing hospitalisations rather than cases, and most scenarios show the peak in early August. Hospitalisations lag cases, and it looks like early August will be right: we haven't seen the peak yet.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/uk-daily-covid-admissions...
Peak was several days ago.
It's bit early to be sure yet (the UK fall in cases has slowed greatly in the last week), but if that turns out to be true "the models predicted that cases would peak around that time" would still be OK for the purposes of this thread: the point is that it's unsurprising that cases began to fall within a week or two of "freedom day".
From this article:
> “Something strange is happening in Britain,” the Washington Post declared this week. “COVID cases are plummeting instead of soaring.” A few weeks ago, when the country’s new daily-case total was around 60,000, the prominent British epidemiologist and government adviser Neil Ferguson declared that a rise to 100,000 a day was inevitable, and that 200,000 a day was possible. The country is now at 27,000 and falling.