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Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by dtech on Saturday July 31, 2021 @06:30PM (#28022053)
> It’s hard to predict timelines for this kind of thing, and people are notoriously bad at it. Few would have predicted the results we’re seeing today in 2010. What would you expect to see in the years leading up to AGI? Does what we’re seeing look like failure?

Few have predicted a reasonably-capable text-writing engine or automatic video face replacement, but many have predicted self-driving cars would have been readily available to consumers by now and semi-intelligent helper-robots being around.

Just because unforeseen advancements have been made, does not mean that foreseen advancements come true.

Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by exporectomy on Saturday July 31, 2021 @09:20PM (#28022924)
People tend to predict simple technological substitutes for human tasks rather than novel things. I suspect we won't get artificial humans because we'll end up not actually wanting that and getting something better instead. Just like we got cars instead of artificial horses.
Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by fossuser on Monday August 02, 2021 @12:19AM (#28032839)
AGI isn't really about artificial humans.

It's about very good general problem solving software that's way beyond the capabilities of humans while not being aligned with human interests. Not because the software is evil, but because aligning values is an unsolved problem (humans aren't even totally aligned - and values also change).

If you have an intelligence that's very good at achieving its goal and you don't have a good way to align its goal with human goals, you can very quickly get into trouble if that intelligence thinks much faster than you do.

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/mMBTPTjRbsrqbSkZE/sorting-pe...

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/4ARaTpNX62uaL86j6/the-hidden...

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/BEtzRE2M5m9YEAQpX/there-s-no...

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/5wMcKNAwB6X4mp9og/that-alien...

Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by kaba0 on Sunday August 01, 2021 @03:51AM (#28024593)
We used to think that machines would be bad at arithmetic and pure logical reasoning, and good at the more primitive animalistic ones, but it turns out the latter is a much harder problem.

Also, self-driving cars were mostly hyped up by companies, FSD is quite obviously a hard problem, much closer to general intelligence than the average NN application.

Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by kittiepryde on Sunday August 01, 2021 @08:38AM (#28025855)
When did we think that?
Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by jltsiren on Saturday July 31, 2021 @09:08PM (#28022854)
Automatic video face replacement always seemed an obvious application to me. I'm more surprised that the tools for it are still so rough. I guess we can thank social taboos for that.

When I was a kid, I remember wondering how Soviets were obsessed with faking photos. A few years later, I saw Terminator 2 and realized that faking videos was also a thing. The tools for it would clearly get better and better over time. When I studied ML in the early 2000s, it seemed obvious that pattern recognition tasks such as image manipulation would be "easy" for computers, once we found the right approach and made the ML systems big enough. In the end, I decided not to pursue ML, because jobs were still scarce and I found discrete problems more interesting. That was probably the worst career mistake I've ever made.

Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by greggman3 on Sunday August 01, 2021 @01:42AM (#28024070)
self-driving cars are available to consumers now. Search for FSD on youtube and see all the consumers using their self driving cars.

Or, watch the latest Veritasium

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yjztvddhZmI

Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by pnt12 on Sunday August 01, 2021 @03:28AM (#28024487)
And yet all of them force you to keep your eyes on the road at all times or you can die. Can you honestly call that FSD?
Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by greggman3 on Sunday August 01, 2021 @02:42PM (#28028758)
#1 it's still beta. The point is to show the progress is real

#2 see linked video, he sits in the backseat, there is no driver and no one to take control.

Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by Tepix on Sunday August 01, 2021 @04:32AM (#28024759)
If you can't go to sleep, the car is not fully self-driving
Re:Past Performance is Not Indicative of Future Results (2020) by kaba0 on Sunday August 01, 2021 @03:53AM (#28024598)
It’s as much FSD as my robot vacuum not hitting the wall…

These are just overhyped drive assist tools that market themselves immorally as something they aren’t.