That's some pretty impressive goal post moving there.

It doesn't matter whether it can't ever be ported back. It doesn't work today, and that's all there is to it. Musk lied. And it isn't the first time he does so either.

That's a bit harsh. Many technology products have delays, it sucks, makes customers unhappy, but is not uncommon and is not considered lying, not in my book at least. Windows Vista was delayed for many many years [1]. They actually promised a full database replacement to their file system that it never really shipped, etc. This is not to criticize them, but just to say that when ambitious goals are set, it's often the case that delays happen. You can definitely make the case that maybe it's better to release products Apple-style and just unveil them when they are ready, that would be a fair point.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Development_of_Windows_Vista

It's not harsh. He sold cars claiming they can do FSD in the near future. He claimed he will have a million robotaxis in 2020. He claimed Teslas will pay for themselves in a year's time working as taxis for you (a bold faced lie even if FSD were here today).

Windows Vista and software in general are not even remotely comparable: they are not sold today with the promise of features tomorrow - they are generally sold when they're ready. Even pre-order games are usually refunded if they incur too huge delays or ship with significantly altered features (see Cyberpunk 2020).

Although, most V1 software is released early, as an MVP (Most Viable Product), get a lot of feedback and iterate. So it's a very reasonable approach to release FSD incrementally and get early adoption and early feedback. Again, it's a pretty hard problem to solve; so even if they fail, lots of respect from me to their team for getting this far.

What will it take for you to admit that it doesn't exist?

Just like you can't be a little bit pregnant you can't have a little bit of FSD. You either have it or you don't. It's a boolean, and it's embedded in that word 'full'.

> MobileNet

Okay, compare accuracy of MobileNet to ViT. ViT has 90.45% accuracy and 1.843Bn parameters and MobileNet has 79% with 5.47M parameters (2020, v3 is 75% with 5.4). [0]

These two networks are nowhere near equal. If you could put ViT on a phone and run real-time inference you would. But you can't, so you take a major cut in performance to get what you can.

There are multiple metrics you need to look at when evaluating networks. "Being able to perform on a dataset" is not even that useful of one.

[0] Have fun https://paperswithcode.com/sota/image-classification-on-imag...

>So, how can we be so sure that FSD can't EVER be ported back to HW1?

Are you saying that the possibility is enough to prove they didn't cheat people?

If, some day, Tesla hypothetically says "we have determined it is technically possible to backport FSD, but we aren't gonna, because we like making money, not spending it" is that enough in your mind to demonstrate they didn't defraud anyone way back when?

Or do they actually have to make it run to fulfill the original promise?

The possibility is not enough. They have to make FSD work in older Teslas to fulfill the original promise, somehow.

That said, if it doesn't happened this year, it doesn't mean it will never happen.

The first problem they need to solve is FSD. If they can't solve FSD even with latest hardware, then well, that would be bad on its own.

The question is, what happens once they solve FSD, do they port? Maybe, I don't think it will be nearly as hard. Now realistically, it's probably cheaper to give free upgrades to everyone and not have to do the port. To me that feels fair, is like "hey, I promised you FSD on HW1, is gonna be a pain to port, but here, take this free HW upgrade", I'd be OK with that.

Now if they don't compensate HW1 users to some degree once FSD is solved, I do feel that would not be cool.

But my point here is that, we are jumping to conclusions, we don't know yet. We can't claim (yet) that FSD will or will not happen.