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A comment on Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change evidence gets. Parent comment

Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change... by swader999 on Tuesday July 27, 2021 @06:24PM (#27978408)
It isn't current trends, it's model based predictions which are woefully inadequate. These models can't predict historical weather or climate when rewound and started any number of years ago. Different models don't agree with other models.

And yet we're making enormous policy changes with them.

So one, I don't think it's worth trying to use these models for policy. Two, sea level rise has only been 1-3 mm per year since the sixties, temp about 0.08 degrees centigrade per decade. Easily adaptable.

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Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change... by lovecg on Wednesday July 28, 2021 @01:39PM (#27986699)
That’s a very serious accusation you’re making and it doesn’t agree with anything I’ve read about those models. On the contrary the predictions seem to match observations very well over the last couple of decades. This is not backtesting either which could be dismissed as overfitting - I’m talking literally take a model from 10, 20, 30 years ago and see what it predicted. Do you have any references to what you’re referring to?
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Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change... by swader999 on Wednesday July 28, 2021 @03:45PM (#27988803)
Steve Koonin, one of Obama's former climate experts, does a great job of discussing the fatal flaws in his recent book "Unsettled".

You can also look at the IPCC reports themselves where they admit to model "limitations". Also note the confidence level their far out proclaimations are made with. It is typically "moderate" or "low". The news pieces rarely make mention of this confidence level though.

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Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change... by lovecg on Wednesday July 28, 2021 @06:11PM (#27990425)
As far as I can tell he served as Under Secretary of Energy for Science and has zero climate science background. I’m not sure it’s accurate to call him a “climate expert”.

There are plenty of articles debunking his points as outdated strawman arguments, e.g. https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/wall-street-journal-a...

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