Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change...
by genericuser314 on Tuesday July 27, 2021 @04:48PM
(#27977430)
I don't think its "first witnessed", I think its 80% of blossoms are open.
https://twitter.com/sayakasofiamori/status/13739565776071311...
Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change...
by quietbritishjim on Tuesday July 27, 2021 @05:41PM
(#27978008)
Ah you're right, I'm not sure how I got that impression
Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change...
by brokencode on Tuesday July 27, 2021 @04:51PM
(#27977469)
I haven’t dug into the data set, but the title of the graph says “peak bloom”, not first bloom, implying that outliers don’t significantly affect the results.
Re:Japan's cherry blossom: as indisputable as climate change...
by RaketenStadt on Tuesday July 27, 2021 @04:50PM
(#27977454)
No, the values are the "full-flowering date" not the "first"
As I read it, the values here are the date that cherry blossom are first witnessed in the year. There's probably a bell-shaped distribution of when blossom appears on a given tree i.e. there will be a very small number of trees that bloom really early. If you have more people looking for it, then there's a greater chance that someone will spot a really exceptionally early tree. So an alternative explanation for the trend is just an increase in the Japanese population.
(Counter argument: when the population gets high enough that essentially all trees are witnessed, further population increases would have no further effect.)