Re:WeChat suspends new user registration for security compli...
by yorwba on Tuesday July 27, 2021 @05:46PM
(#27978061)
> I see a lot of Chinese experts rationalize recent moves by saying it's all foreshadowed in CCP's public policy goals and so on. If that was the case, I would expect at least domestic investors to have priced-in the impact of the recent changes well ahead of time.
That's assuming domestic investors were paying attention to public policy goals (probably not true for many small-time speculators) and able to predict which companies would run afoul of regulations (hard even for well-informed institutional investors). The second draft of the new personal information protection law has penalties up to 5% of revenue in severe cases https://www.cods.org.cn/c/2021-06-24/14270.html (Article 65) but once such a fine is issued for the first time (assuming this part makes it into the final law) I bet the company in question will have its stock price tank, even though the possibility of regulatory action is public knowledge. The hard part is knowing if and when it'll happen.
A China with a stable regulatory regime is probably preferable over a China that is prepared to do short-term self-harm in return for its long-term strategy objectives. This just reinforces that there is no transparency in policy-making, and there is no room for capital to act as a tempering voice. Moreover, Taiwan's economy is heavily linked to China - China is Taiwan's biggest trading partner. If China has no regard for domestic or foreign capital and industry, it almost certainly doesn't care about disrupting Taiwan economically and forcing it to submission without firing a bullet.
OT: I see a lot of Chinese experts rationalize recent moves by saying it's all foreshadowed in CCP's public policy goals and so on. If that was the case, I would expect at least domestic investors to have priced-in the impact of the recent changes well ahead of time.