> 100% of new vehicles being EV in 9 years isn’t that fast. Assuming the average vehicle lasts ~25 years that’s a ~30+ year transition that simply looks scary to start with.

I feel this distinction needs to be made every time there's talk about banning ICE.

I have yet to see any proposed laws that completely ban ICE. It's always a ban on selling new ICE. You'll still be able to buy used ICE, and they will eventually fade away through attrition.

I think current estimate is far sadder of only 50% new sales by 2033 or so - it's estimated by battery mineral mining schedules.

Which in a way means PHEV's with 10th of a battery of normal EV would be way better way to accelerate reduction of emissions.

Mineral extraction is very hard to predict 1 year from now let alone 12. I would be very cautious of an estimate that precise on those timescales.

Takes 4-12 years to setup one

From scratch yes, but increasing rates of extraction takes less time.

Edit: 4 mile per kWh.