You’ve fallen prey to a mathematical fallacy. Imagine a place where one person is born each year, and all of them die upon reaching age 10. The average age of that population is 5, while the expected lifespan is 10. At any given time, the expected lifespan will be somewhere around double the average age. So, there’s no need for the average age to jump dramatically, we are already there.

Wow, that suprises me about the average age of cars on the road. I've grown up with the expectation that since cars are so expensive, it pays to take care of them and keep them working. Most areas I've lived have been areas of smaller populace and I am used to seeing older cars everywhere. My daily runner is a 2001 Outback with 140k miles. It's had problems, but I've always fixed them myself (engine rebuild following head gasket issue, broken fuel pump, etc). It's what my dad always did with our vehicles growing up and what many guys I've known have done. The mindset isn't universal of course, but looking at those numbers, seems to be relatively more prevalent in my microcosm than overall average. I guess my suprise is that what I took for granted to be normal really isn't compared to the overall average!

You’re right - 18 years is a lot for a car. But we’re not so far - The average age is 12 for the USA, but the average lifespan is around 13-17 depending on the source. So we might be closer than you pointed out ;)

> In the US, an EV produces between 60 to 68 percent fewer emissions.

It seems like a vehicle with a 12 year life you still produce fewer emissions than a ICE vehicle.