Re:Time to assume that health research is fraudulent until p...
by naasking on Friday July 23, 2021 @10:49AM
(#27931302)
I agree scale is the big obstacle, but I think you're kind of doing the same thing you're accusing others of doing: reducing solutions to single variables, like thinking lithium batteries manufactured using dirty methods are the only or primary grid storage solution.
A mixed energy economy with a variety of energy storage solutions can address the various needs, and you must also take into account the evolution of technologies and economic incentives.
For instance, the energy delivered each day to cars by chemical means is indeed huge, so you naturally conclude that we can't possibly deliver that much energy using known batteries and renewable technologies. Let's suppose that's true, there are some factors that will affect how this actually plays out:
a) ICE are very inefficient while electric vehicles are much more efficient, and so the total energy to deliver is significantly lower than that delivered by fossil fuels now,
b) vehicle utilization is also inefficient, in the sense that there's no real need for everyone to have their own cars and drive point to point; improved public transit is one solution, but so is something like Uber pool, thus improving the utilization of the delivered energy and thus reducing demand further
c) as for storage alternatives, solid state batteries are very close, and numerous other storage options already exist and are deployed, with improved variants being tested around the world already; I think the wikipedia page on this is decent, in particular if you pay attention to the tech that's already deployed and running [1,2].
I agree that this is a huge problem because fossil fuels are so heavily embedded in our economy in so many ways, but I don't think it's insurmountable. If enough of us can get on the same page that some outcome needs to happen, we can get pretty far pretty fast. We need a Manhattan project level commitment to this, and the country that does this well will have a huge first mover advantage to sell this to other countries. Vested fossil fuel interests are preventing this though.
10 years ago I would have been 100% with you that nuclear power was the option we should be investing in, but given the precipitous fall in the cost of renewables, I don't think nuclear is a slam dunk anymore. Nuclear still has its place in the move away from fossil fuels, and the renewed interest and new reactor designs seem promising.
A mixed energy economy with a variety of energy storage solutions can address the various needs, and you must also take into account the evolution of technologies and economic incentives.
For instance, the energy delivered each day to cars by chemical means is indeed huge, so you naturally conclude that we can't possibly deliver that much energy using known batteries and renewable technologies. Let's suppose that's true, there are some factors that will affect how this actually plays out:
a) ICE are very inefficient while electric vehicles are much more efficient, and so the total energy to deliver is significantly lower than that delivered by fossil fuels now,
b) vehicle utilization is also inefficient, in the sense that there's no real need for everyone to have their own cars and drive point to point; improved public transit is one solution, but so is something like Uber pool, thus improving the utilization of the delivered energy and thus reducing demand further
c) as for storage alternatives, solid state batteries are very close, and numerous other storage options already exist and are deployed, with improved variants being tested around the world already; I think the wikipedia page on this is decent, in particular if you pay attention to the tech that's already deployed and running [1,2].
I agree that this is a huge problem because fossil fuels are so heavily embedded in our economy in so many ways, but I don't think it's insurmountable. If enough of us can get on the same page that some outcome needs to happen, we can get pretty far pretty fast. We need a Manhattan project level commitment to this, and the country that does this well will have a huge first mover advantage to sell this to other countries. Vested fossil fuel interests are preventing this though.
10 years ago I would have been 100% with you that nuclear power was the option we should be investing in, but given the precipitous fall in the cost of renewables, I don't think nuclear is a slam dunk anymore. Nuclear still has its place in the move away from fossil fuels, and the renewed interest and new reactor designs seem promising.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage#Batteries
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grid_energy_storage#Thermal