Then in (conventional) high school I hosted a workshop on beginning Python (with Turtle) and half the people couldn’t understand why x=2 after “x=1” and “x+=1”.
x+=1 just complicates the situation; use x=x+1 to avoid adding more special rules for now.
This stuff is teachable, but it doesn't help that the framework is very different than the similar-looking expressions from math class, where "x=1" followed by "x=2" is not allowed.
The problem with learning to program in a classroom environment is that one kid may find exercise one difficult, another kid may find exercise three difficult, etc, the probability that any kid will get 'left behind' at some point is high. Classrooms are pretty bad places for learning.
And for obvious reasons empirical models are also generally made to be understood by humans, though there at least you can argue that the underlying reality was not designed to be intelligible (and frequently isn't hence why we've got shortcuts like thermodynamics to reason about chaos).
Why do you think that situation would be different for any other kind of activity that humans take part in?
I took Robocode[1], made a basic Robot class that the kids could easily extend, and then taught them just enough logic and syntax so they could have their robots battle their classmates'.
It was a huge success. We had to close the door to the classroom because the kids were so loud, cheering their robots on.
Whenever a kid was called by the teacher to do their one-on-one, they protested "one more minute, I need to improve my robot!"
In September, my daughter starts university in software engineering; mission accomplished! ;)
[1] https://robocode.sourceforge.io/