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Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by mike_hearn on Thursday July 15, 2021 @07:25AM (#27843519)
"on twitter you've got bad actors pushing propaganda"

This statement is vague enough that it could mean a lot of things, but due to your reference to Cyrillic, I feel a need to point out that the most common conspiracy theory about Twitter being filled with fake accounts controlled by Russian bots or "bad actors" is completely false.

I can say this with some small authority, because I'm actually a cited expert on the topic of false claims about Twitter propaganda bots. In 2017 I wrote an essay [1] analyzing an academic paper which claimed the Brexit vote had been heavily influenced by Russian Twitter bots. It was a form of scientific fraud and its claims reduced to nothing. (I'd worked on bot detection at Google for several years so knew that their claims were impossible, and it started influencing the Prime Minister at the time, which is why I read it).

That article was then later cited in a paper [2] titled, "The Rise and Fall of 'Social Bot' Research". The paper is perhaps more easily digested in talk form, and I'm cited in that too [3]. It shows that there's an entire subfield of "science" with thousands of research papers, claiming that Twitter is overrun with bots engaging in political propaganda and subtly controlling elections. None of these papers are logically or scientifically valid. The bots they think they're finding are in reality just artifacts of measurement and logic errors. In most cases the mistakes the papers make are so basic they cannot possibly be actual errors, and thus it seems plausible to assume that the widespread belief in Russian Twitter bots is itself deliberate propaganda spread by academics who are trying to delegitimize social trends they disapprove of.

Here are some of the ways these papers mislead people:

• They define a bot as any account that posts a lot to Twitter using a smartphone.

• They mathematically obfuscate their own data to hide the fact that it doesn't support their conclusions.

• They define a bot as anyone labelled as such by an opaque ML model called "BotOrNot"/"Botometer".

BotOrNot is pure pseudo-science because it's not replicable: the model isn't available for study or re-creation. It can only be used via an API.

But beyond being unscientific the model outputs random noise, and as a consequence papers that use it rarely disclose the actual list of accounts identified as bots, because it would be obvious that the papers were fraudulent. For example when it was shown that BotOrNot classed a large chunk of US Congressmen as bots, the academics who created it simply attacked the discoverers as "academic trolls", then quietly hard-coded Congress to be humans. Of course there are many other lists of known-human accounts and so it was easy to show that this model classifies anywhere between 10% and 30% of humans as bots. None of these papers care about the FP rate on the model, nor that it's not actually a scientific tool at all due to its entirely secret methodology.

Journalists enthusiastically spread these lies. The paper by Gallwitz & Kreil has a diagram showing how fake papers ended up in a huge list of media outlets and the talk goes on to show that in many cases the media have stopped even requiring a bogus academic paper to repeat these allegations. A mere statement by a professor is considered sufficient.

It's important that people understand this: practically any claim you've read about hordes of bots on Twitter influencing politics is false. There is a well funded effort across the entire political left (academics, left wing journalists, a small number of tech workers) to create the illusion that such bots are rife and that non-left wing political outcomes are not genuinely "real" as a consequence, but when actual evidence is demanded the claims evaporate. Do not be fooled by this.

[1] https://blog.plan99.net/did-russian-bots-impact-brexit-ad66f...

[2] https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3814191

[3] https://archive.org/details/hopeconf2020/20200726_2000_Peopl...

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by TheRealDunkirk on Thursday July 15, 2021 @07:52AM (#27843684)
> Twitter being filled with fake accounts controlled by Russian bots or "bad actors" is completely false.

Yeah. I mean, everyone knows that they're actually Chinese. /s

From your first link: "I am one of the very, very few people in the world who has actually fought bots on social media platforms." At this point, I think most people "get" just how little FAANG companies are doing to combat... uh, let's call it... "coordinated uses of their platforms for user-hostile purposes." For years I have said that they could be doing much, much more, and people just hand-wave the criticism aside with, "but but but it's really HARD." Yeah, I know. But these companies continue to print money like the Fed, year after year. They could be throwing A LOT more manpower and machines at the problem, and it shows. We all feel it. Anyway, it's just nice to see some side channel data that proves my point.

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by mike_hearn on Thursday July 15, 2021 @08:17AM (#27843867)
What specific tricks do you think tech firms are missing? At least when I worked on the problem, both machines and manpower were plentiful.

At any rate, you seem to be assuming there's a large uncontrolled bot problem. The point of the research quoted above is that there isn't. Unless you're talking about ordinary commercial spam?

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by h2odragon on Thursday July 15, 2021 @09:27AM (#27844385)
For the longest time "everybody knew" that downloading files from a BBS or the Internet would infect you with digital viruses.. There's still "Antivirus software".

If we don't see the hordes of "russian Bots" we must be insane, right?

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by dcolkitt on Thursday July 15, 2021 @08:25AM (#27843931)
> At this point, I think most people "get" just how little FAANG companies are doing to combat

Do you have any evidence of this claim or do you just “get” it. This kinda reminds of the rhetorical device where somebody says “you know it, I know it, everybody knows it” without actually citing any proof.

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by TheRealDunkirk on Thursday July 15, 2021 @11:00AM (#27845541)
https://www.indiewire.com/2019/11/ida-the-great-hack-documen...

This whole thing exposed how the platform was gamed. That's what I'm referring to. This sort of thing is being done in large and small ways all the time, and there's no chance that Facebook and Twitter are doing enough to detect it, because it's in their financial interests NOT to.

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by throwaways885 on Thursday July 15, 2021 @08:24AM (#27843926)
What makes you think this problem isn't being tackled? Every year Twitter and Facebook talk about how they detected and removed XXX million bots from their platform. For example, the spam problem has been rapidly iterated on [1] to little fanfare. The abuse, T&S and security teams at these companies probably cost on the order of hundreds of millions of $, how is that consistent with your framing that the problem is being ignored?

You can't simply throw machines and manpower at a problem.

[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/420400/spam-email-traffi...

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by TheRealDunkirk on Thursday July 15, 2021 @11:17AM (#27845738)
> how is that consistent with your framing that the problem is being ignored?

And here I'm struggling to understand how anyone can read my comment and conclude that I'm framing the problem as being "ignored." Silly me.

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by Brybry on Saturday July 17, 2021 @06:39AM (#27864879)
The statement was purposefully vague because I cannot claim to know who the bad actors are -- only that I stumbled onto a few. Also I never said they were bots.

My example was from one account that I personally found and reported. And someone at Twitter must have agreed with me because the accounts no longer exist.

And, in terms of evidence, I actually still have screenshots that I posted to discord to share with some friends. But if you don't trust my word then it's not like the screenshots are any more trustworthy.

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by hobs on Thursday July 15, 2021 @09:56AM (#27844751)
It sounds like you reject their methodology, which is fine, but that doesn't mean they were wrong, just that they are failing to prove it.

As far as I can tell the reason why many people on twitter thought there was a massive russian bot problem is because they(I) saw the massive influx of political bots and shills with the rise of the election and could clearly tell someone had their finger on the scale.

Russia seemed the most obvious culprit given various signals coming out ahead of the election (and after it) eg https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/15/kremlin-papers...

Re:Google engineer who criticized company in viral comics on... by mike_hearn on Thursday July 15, 2021 @10:28AM (#27845158)
If their methodology is wrong then there is no support for their hypothesis, meaning we accept the null hypothesis (that there's nothing there).

Rejection of what they're doing isn't some personal quirk of mine, by the way. Their methodology is entirely invalid. It should be rejected by anyone because it can't tell us anything true about the world.