Re:China's Ban on Bitcoin Follows a Pattern Frequently Used ...
by jfengel on Tuesday July 13, 2021 @02:22PM
(#27824322)
The problem is that in economic terms, there hasn't been a "long-term average" yet. It's a new financial instrument, and during what duration it's had, its price has been driven by an influx of interest.
At best, you can hope for a logistic curve, where the growth will flatten off when everybody on the planet (at least, those with money) has collectively decided to accept it. That will level off the price.
At worst, when that happens, the people who depended on the exponential growth will cash out their earnings in search of new opportunities. If that happens, the entire thing will crash rapidly.
I can't tell you which it's going to be. I'd call it a coin toss. But that makes it hard for me to consider it a "long term value". It's a valid best case scenario, but we haven't seen that best case yet, only an influx of new buyers who are drawn more by the upward curve rather than the potential flattening.
At best, you can hope for a logistic curve, where the growth will flatten off when everybody on the planet (at least, those with money) has collectively decided to accept it. That will level off the price.
At worst, when that happens, the people who depended on the exponential growth will cash out their earnings in search of new opportunities. If that happens, the entire thing will crash rapidly.
I can't tell you which it's going to be. I'd call it a coin toss. But that makes it hard for me to consider it a "long term value". It's a valid best case scenario, but we haven't seen that best case yet, only an influx of new buyers who are drawn more by the upward curve rather than the potential flattening.