"To reduce self-selection bias, invitations to complete surveys were sent out to members of Survation’s panel and the surveys were then conducted by online interview. This approach is far more rigorous than say, running a poll on a website in which anyone can choose to take part."
Are "members of Survation's panel" a random subset of developers? How many invitations were sent out to get 238 responses (i.e. what was the response rate)? Are developers with burnout more likely to respond to a survey about burnout? Was the sample population demographically similar to the overall population of developers?
That doesn't mean they are burned out clinically speaking, or even if they have symptoms of burnout. It does point to a large, systematic problem in the industry (and society in general).
I didn't claim to know everything there is to know about statistics and research in general, but I think I know enough to tell that this is not a study, but a marketing campaign for whatever this usehaystack thing is.
> First, they should have tried to poll around 400 people (and perhaps they did!),
If you had read the article, you would have known that that's not what they did.
> By typical polling standards (95% confidence interval, random sample from filtered population), we expect that 77-89% of UK software developers are actually burnt out. That is still three out of every four people in the industry!
Do I understand correctly that you've worked on this? That certainly explains the hostility, but nevertheless.
> we expect that 77-89% of UK software developers are actually burnt out.
That's not what the link/study says.
> That is still three out of every four people in the industry!
This is absolutely wrong, without a shred of a doubt.
I recommend that you read: How to lie with Statistics by Darrell Huff.
Psychological experiments and surveys are often done in only one or two days. Why would a wider window of time help when taking a snapshot of a current situation?
Hm, is 258 a small sample size? Let's put in some effort instead of just screaming "bullshit" a bunch. There are approximately 408,000 people in the entire population [0], and plugging everything into a calculator, we get two results: First, they should have tried to poll around 400 people (and perhaps they did!), but more importantly, the 95% confidence interval is only around ±6%.
Let me repeat that more clearly: By typical polling standards (95% confidence interval, random sample from filtered population), we expect that 77-89% of UK software developers are actually burnt out. That is still three out of every four people in the industry!
Not sure what to say. Take a stats class?
[0] https://www.statista.com/statistics/318818/numbers-of-progra...