That explanation doesn’t make sense because people with limited economic circumstances, such as Latino immigrants, have the most children. There’s been a major cultural shift among a particular group of American and that explains the disparity.

I don’t think we end up in a Japan situation. The immigration boat as already sailed, and will dilute the cultural changes that are limiting birth rates.

> That explanation doesn’t make sense because people with limited economic circumstances, such as Latino immigrants, have the most children.

This actually makes perfect sense - in American culture there's not a huge expectation for children to care for you in your old age. It's expected that you'll have saved for retirement, your children are a 100% drain on your finances. In a lot of other cultures, your children are your retirement plan, and the more of them you have, the better your retirement will be.

> The immigration boat as already sailed, and will dilute the cultural changes that are limiting birth rates.

Immigration rates seem to have peaked, and they haven't made any significant changes to our slowing population growth. The general political climate is definitely not amenable to increasing immigration any further.

If it is a cultural shift it is not restricted to a particular group of Americans. Fertility rates are low across the developed world. Most industrialized nations have a total fertility rate below replacement level.

Don’t forget relentless Hollywood messaging that parenthood is a waste of time, annoying, expensive or just that endlessly hooking up is empowering.

A lot of the issues you’ve described could be solved by incentives for families to stay geographically close together, and leverage the power of grandparents etc like in generations past.

This pattern should get more attention. To add insult to injury on the growing wealth gap, mass media has been successfully signaling the middle class to remove themselves from the gene pool.

This sounds like a bond movie plot… except its happening and at a very steady pace over decades

>we've made having children... an outright horrible financial decision... people are reacting rationally.

Something rings strangely about this. Surely "sound financial decision" cannot be our ultimate utility function. All that money has to be for something. Buying an ice cream cone isn't a sound financial decision either, but it remains a popular activity. People who choose to have children are not doing so because it will make them money.

> People who choose to have children are not doing so because it will make them money.

True, but I would argue that a lot of people who choose not to have children are doing so because it would make them impoverished. Beyond that, many people who do have children didn't choose to do it. There are a horrifying number of pregnancies that weren't wanted but were carried to term anyway.

I'd add that the general outlook is also grim. I'm not sure the next generation will have the luxury of retiring. They will inherit a difficult situation wrt climate change on top of it all.