Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads

Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by collyw on Thursday July 08, 2021 @06:58AM (#27770388)

> This paper finds that the average COVID victim might have lived another 8 QALYs (quality-adjusted life years - a measure of years of life saved, in which years when you are very sick and can’t do anything count as less than a full year) if they hadn’t gotten COVID.

I take issue with this.

The average age in the UK of death was 83 I think, compared to an average life expectancy of 82. Most had more than one comorbidity. Do we really expected these people to live until 90?

In addition to this a lot of the early deaths were in care homes were the residents aren't expected to live 8 years (less than 3 years from a very quick search). That would mean that non care home residents would need to average an ever higher amount of life for that to be true.

Sorry, that seems kind of ridiculous.

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Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by maxerickson on Thursday July 08, 2021 @04:30PM (#27777220)

The life expectancy of people that die at 82 doesn't count against them like that. Glancing at a UK life table, life expectancy at age 83 is 7 years for men and 8 years for women.

Throw in the youngers and it is clear enough the math should work out fine.

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Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by collyw on Friday July 09, 2021 @10:24AM (#27783963)

An average includes "youngers".

The expected life expectancy you give isn't for people with an average of two comorbidities.

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Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads by maxerickson on Friday July 09, 2021 @04:18PM (#27788061)

In our thought experiment, the younger people all have more years of life expectancy than the older people.

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