Re:Corona Game: A simulation of how Covid-19 spreads
by spywaregorilla on Wednesday July 07, 2021 @05:15PM
(#27765806)
> Out of curiosity, which mechanism are you thinking about that would lead you to the conclusion that hospital capacity doesn't impact mortality?
First, it's that hospitals effect on covid mortality is lower than believed. Second, while morbid, I assume mortality risk can be assessed pretty accurately by hospital staff. If you must triage, triaging someone who has a 99% chance of dying in the hospital and a 100% chance of dying outside the hospital raises the expected deaths by 0.01. Hospitals tend to serve everyone they can (for good reason) but the value add part comes from serving people who have a high chance of dying out of the hospital AND a relatively low chance of dying in the hospital.
These could be wildly wrong assumptions.
I would think hospital closures would cause a large increase in mortality rates as you don't get to triage effectively at that point.
First, it's that hospitals effect on covid mortality is lower than believed. Second, while morbid, I assume mortality risk can be assessed pretty accurately by hospital staff. If you must triage, triaging someone who has a 99% chance of dying in the hospital and a 100% chance of dying outside the hospital raises the expected deaths by 0.01. Hospitals tend to serve everyone they can (for good reason) but the value add part comes from serving people who have a high chance of dying out of the hospital AND a relatively low chance of dying in the hospital.
These could be wildly wrong assumptions.
I would think hospital closures would cause a large increase in mortality rates as you don't get to triage effectively at that point.