> For that, you need influential groups that can benefit from changing the status quo. In a country that has been suffering from decades of corruption ... religion, ethnic disputes and sometimes hundreds of years worth of land disputes and squabbles come into the mix.

I don't exactly disagree, but this is why it can make sense to pursue basic state-building ("good government") and liberalization (respect for basic rights and freedoms) well before worrying about electoral democracy, or a transfer of power away from current policy makers. In practice, the latter is essentially useless without the former - but in the long run, more freedom opens up opportunities for more democracy.