https://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2020-us-pickup-truck-sales-fig...
I think the Ford F-150 Lightning is an odd comparison to a Model 3. But you also get much more with the F-150 for the money.
Still, you can pay $20,000 and get a sedan that does most of what the Model 3 does (as far as basic transportation with seats.) The original comment stands - when will the Model 3 be price competitive with affordable, basic transportation?
The car category that has seen year-on-year decline, with several manufacturers discontinuing completely, as consumers move to SUVs and trucks in droves. I'm not sure the data is on your side here.
If the Cybertruck and Lightning ship at around $40K let's see if the M3 can compete there. I highly doubt it based on historical US vehicle sales.