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Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by zamadatix on Thursday July 01, 2021 @04:28PM (#27704342)
I strongly believe climate change is playing a role in slowly increasing the severity and frequency of these weather extremes but the way you set up the validation of the claim makes it so the only way climate change predictions for the last 40 years could have been false is if no small towns in North America burned due to wildfires in the future.

Climate change isn't proven or disproven or cause of a singular fire or extreme weather event, by definition it's about the change of the overall climate where more such events may occur than normal (but they don't come wrapped with a bow and a note saying "love: climate change"). This is another piece of evidence towards that aggregate but not uniquely identifiable as only being possible because of climate change.

Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by tshaddox on Thursday July 01, 2021 @04:42PM (#27704551)
What you said is true, but the original commenter said that climate change burned down a town, not that this town burning down is proof that climate change is real. There’s a very big difference there.
Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by zamadatix on Thursday July 01, 2021 @06:41PM (#27705784)
I talk about both, the point particular to the specific instance of the town here:

"by definition it's about the change of the overall climate where more such events may occur than normal (but they don't come wrapped with a bow and a note saying "love: climate change"). This is another piece of evidence towards that aggregate but not uniquely identifiable as only being possible because of climate change."

There is no way to say climate change caused this particular town to burn down, just that climate change has caused more towns to burn down than average.

Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by lenova on Thursday July 01, 2021 @05:23PM (#27705059)
This is not what my comment said at all. Please don't twist my words like this.
Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by zamadatix on Thursday July 01, 2021 @06:48PM (#27705859)
Please don't make generalized dismissals, I can't be sure if I if misinterpreted, if you misinterpreted, or if we just disagree on a point - all I know is you feel misunderstood in some way.

What particularly is it you find yourself disagreeing with in my response?

Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by GavinMcG on Thursday July 01, 2021 @04:45PM (#27704592)
No, you're mixing up necessary and sufficient. This being a definitive demonstration doesn't make it the only definitive reason to accept climate change - there was already plenty of good-enough evidence.
Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by zamadatix on Thursday July 01, 2021 @07:04PM (#27705994)
I don't think the problem is on the "evidence of climate change" side, I think there is plenty inclusive or exclusive of this single event. The issue with the claim "climate change literally just burnt down a town" is cities have and will burn downe pre/post climate change so even overwhelming evidence of climate change is not proof that climate change caused this particular city to burn.
Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by moistly on Friday July 02, 2021 @03:37AM (#27708797)
I think when three people correct you, it is time to consider that one might not be correct.
Re:'Most homes' in Lytton destroyed by catastrophic fire, B.... by zamadatix on Friday July 02, 2021 @10:21AM (#27711866)
It's the top response to a comment on an _extremely_ charged issue and has had at least a dozen direct engagements. 3 disagreements is a lot less than I expected to be honest, particularly when all 3 are about something different. I fully expected -5 karma and 5 comments saying the same <x> in the morning because I missed something obvious. Of the responses tshaddox probably had the best point that the comment focused a bit to much on talking general climate change points before it got to the meat of the response to the actual comment. jacquesm probably said what I was aiming to try to say best out of anything in the entire parent thread https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27704578 and he avoids my mistake right out of the gate.

Regardless "# of HN commentors disagreeing with you" probably isn't a good measure of not being correct or a good goal post to monitor. Best to assume it's exceedingly, exceptionally (impossibly?), rare you ever have the fully correct picture and you have keep the understanding you'll need to grow your view with new data as you discuss. Even if you have 50 straight responses that agree someone will agree but add something you hadn't considered.