Really? I'm not real enthusiastic about dragging politics into this, but i think the US Treasury is one elected religious fanatic away from declaring intrest usurious and declining to pay. "Fiscal Responsibility" seems to last until about 5 minutes after any given election.

I'm not saying the probability is big, but is 1% an unbelievable number? Just for reference, back in 2000 what odds would you have put on the US electing a black president before 2050? Back then, I thought that number was very close to zero.

I'm (obviously) not an analyst. I'm baffled at how they can predict return with much confidence 10 years out.