Re:SafeDollar ‘stablecoin’ drops to $0 following DeFi exploi...
by solomonb on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @03:53AM
(#27673081)
yes this is what I was implying. I am curious how else the previous commenter would interpret my statement.
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Re:SafeDollar ‘stablecoin’ drops to $0 following DeFi exploi...
by theli0nheart on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @11:51AM
(#27677648)
Let's formalize this to make it easier to discuss.
𝐏(𝐀) = 𝐏(contract has been hacked)
𝐏(¬𝐀) = 𝐏(contract has not been hacked)
𝐏(𝐁) = 𝐏(contract is hack resistant)
Relevant conditional probabilities: 𝐏(𝐁|¬𝐀) =
𝐏(contract is hack-resistant given that it has not been hacked)
𝐏(¬𝐀|𝐁) =
𝐏(contract has not been hacked given that it is hack-resistant)
The fallacy of the inverse would be assuming that:> The probability that a contract is hack-resistant, given that it has not been hacked, is approximately equal to the probability that it has not been hacked, given that it's hack resistant.
More succinctly:
𝐏(𝐁|¬𝐀) ≅ 𝐏(¬𝐀|𝐁)
In https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27666484, the fallacy of the inverse was presented as "those contracts not being hacked yet is no proof that they are resistant to hacks" or "NOT (NOT A implies B)", i.e.: ¬(¬𝐀 → 𝐁)
In summary: 𝐏(𝐁|¬𝐀) ≅ 𝐏(¬𝐀|𝐁) => the fallacy of the inverse
and
¬(¬𝐀 → 𝐁) => statement in comment
These two statements are fundamentally different.Note that the first statement is a comparison of probabilities, and the second is not. They're not the same. There might be another fallacy at play here, but it's not the fallacy of the inverse.
Re:SafeDollar ‘stablecoin’ drops to $0 following DeFi exploi...
by Closi on Wednesday June 30, 2021 @12:29AM
(#27684872)
To be honest, I don’t fully follow the above, and I’m not sure if this formalises the same problem. Copying the definition from Wikipedia:
> If P, then Q.
> Therefore, if not P, then not Q.
In this case, we could plug in the below values:
P = Contract Hacked Q = Insecure
I.e. if the contract has been hacked the code was insecure. Therefore if the contract has not been hacked, it is not insecure.