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Re:Shorting Bitcoin by AmericanChopper on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @03:00AM (#27672743)
That’s a very bad thesis to trade options on. The author believes that BTC is overvalued, but if you look at their reasons for believing it’s overvalued, some of them could have applied to BTC at any point in time over the past several years, and the rest could have applied to BTC and any point in time since it’s creation.

By buying puts on bitcoin (derivatives), they’re not only betting that they’re correct, but also that something will happen in the next 5-6 months that will catalyze the market to correct that valuation. They don’t have any thesis at all for what’s going to catalyze this correction over the next 5-6 months. Their entire investment thesis is that “[they’d] be astonished if we get through 2021 without an explosion”. The investment described in this blog post is just a crypto-bear yolo play, with less thought put into it than your average r/WSB post.

Edit: looking at the options chain for the BTC ETF they’re shorting, NTM puts are trading at $2, so the underlying has to lose about 1/3rd of its value for that trade to break even. If it goes to $0, their maximum profit is ~$400 per ~$200 contract. That’s certainly not a cheap contract.

Re:Shorting Bitcoin by midjji on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @03:42AM (#27673012)
Bitcoin, like tesla stock is better predicted by treating it as a religion than a rational investment. So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned?
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by wolfhumble on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @08:06AM (#27674687)
> So how long are people going to believe a kid who said a god knocked her up to avoid getting stoned?

What you say does not make much sense. When Jesus came to Nazareth as a grown man, this is what His neighbours said about Him:

“Isn’t this the carpenter’s son? Isn’t his mother’s name Mary, and aren’t his brothers James, Joseph, Simon and Judas?" (NIV Matthew 13:54).

And a few verses later: "And they took offense at him. But Jesus said to them, “A prophet is not without honor except in his own town and in his own home.”" (NIV Matthew 13:57)

So clearly, Mary – Jesus's mother – was not kept from being stoned because her neighbours believed Jesus was the Son of God, see Luke 1:26-38 for what Mary was foretold by the angel about her birth of Jesus as the Son of God.

Before Jesus was born, Joseph married Mary: "When Joseph woke up, he did what the angel of the Lord had commanded him and took Mary home as his wife" (NIV Luke 1:24).

Jesus became known as our Saviour because of His words, acts, death and resurrection, not because the neighbours thought He was so spectacular when He was born.

Re:Shorting Bitcoin by username90 on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @04:38PM (#27681419)
> Jesus became known as our Saviour because of His (...) resurrection

There is no evidence for this except what is told in the Bible. Which is the whole point, you are one of those irrational people who are holding onto an irrational asset (Religion). That asset has value to you since others are holding the same asset, if there were no others in the world who believed in the Bible then you wouldn't believe either. So shorting Bible belief could seem rational, it is bound to die sooner or later, but likely it wont die in the next 10 years.

And just to illustrate, a rational belief is belief in something like newtons laws of physics. Although they aren't 100% correct they are still useful for solving many problems so they will likely survive as long as humanity exists. The main difference is that the laws of physics has value even if you are the only person believing in them. Similarly Amazon stock has value even if nobody else wants to buy them. But bitcoins just like the Bible has no value if others doesn't believe in them.

Re:Shorting Bitcoin by eternalban on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @05:30PM (#27681960)
Some great minds in 18th/19th century debated all this in context of rationality. Kant, et al. Some of the discussions were in fact about the "utility" of belief.

As to "rational belief", isn't that an oxymoron? There is 'rational knowledge'. Belief is precisely regarding matters where reason remains mute. Your beliefs and your knowledge are the full content of your world reality.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Schleiermacher

Re:Shorting Bitcoin by midjji on Wednesday June 30, 2021 @05:52PM (#27693814)
Religion being true or not does not matter when predicting the behaviour of believers or the people who exploit belief. Trying to predict the price of tesla or bitcoin using their non investment related utility or in teslas case, comparable companies, gives extremely poor results. But if you believe in Tesla and its profit Elon Musk, that does not matter. And if you believe other people believe in Tesla in this way, and that they will keep successfully recruiting, then the price is not just motivated, but possibly kinda low.
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by midjji on Wednesday June 30, 2021 @05:52PM (#27693813)
Religion being true or not does not matter when predicting the behaviour of believers or the people who exploit belief. Trying to predict the price of tesla or bitcoin using their non investment related utility or in teslas case, comparable companies, gives extremely poor results. But if you believe in Tesla and its profit Elon Musk, that does not matter. And if you believe other people believe in Tesla in this way, and that they will keep successfully recruiting, then the price is not just motivated, but possibly kinda low.
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by AmericanChopper on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @03:48AM (#27673047)
Would you be interested in placing a bet with me that the world gives up on religion before the end of the year? Bets are $200 each, and if there’s 0 religious people left by December 17, I’ll pay 3:1. Any takers?
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by ykevinator3 on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @07:42AM (#27674464)
Tesla has a ton of ip, Bitcoin is pretty cloneable
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by cko on Wednesday June 30, 2021 @12:24AM (#27684843)
Though Bitcoin does have brand name recognition. And being listed on major exchanges. Is that what they refer to as network effects, btw?

And if it's akin to religion or a well known brand, it could be easily cloneable but not easily adoptable. I can make a leather handbag or carbonated beverage right now, but unless I slap a Chanel or Coca Cola logo on it, it's not likely to be in demand.

We have the tendency to approach this from a rational perspective - "it's not a currency or store of value", "what about Tether", etc. But I can think of plenty of examples where the name itself is powerful enough. I'm not willing to bet that Christianity (or any major religion) will collapse in the near future. Slow decline, maybe.

Of course, maybe there's only like a tiny minority of true believers, a couple price manipulating whales, some smoke and mirror organizations, and everyone else is a Robin Hood speculator. I don't have the numbers on that.

Re:Shorting Bitcoin by abriosi on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @03:02PM (#27680257)
Being open source it is not a characteristic for value. There are multiple positive and negative examples of things that are open source and (un)valuable
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by atatatat on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @11:28AM (#27677246)
e.g. Dogecoin
Re:Shorting Bitcoin by dustymcp on Tuesday June 29, 2021 @08:03AM (#27674662)
This was my exact thoughts well done