This sounds like it's responding to a strawman. Proponents of the patent system aren't claiming that zero innovation would happen without patents, just that it would be much less. In other words:
No patent system: only inventions from altruistic inventors
Patent system: inventions from altruistic inventors and profit-focused inventors.
It would depend on the project's margins and/or sunk costs. A project that had very little invested in it or is a breakout success might we able to weather a 50% cut in exclusivity period, but a marginal product might not. Most of the already developed drugs are probably going to be fine, assuming that the financing for them was already secured.
>or would they keep trying?
For the projects at the margins? most certainly. That is not to say all private drug development would, stop. If some sort of unpatented-but-super-cheap-to-perfect-but-still-not-patented drug showed up it might still be developed, but in aggregate I'd expect drug development to drop significantly.
How does the act of buybacks imply that there are no marginal projects?