That's perfectly accurate: the problem is that people tend to run with things like this as though they are the miracle that everybody has been waiting for and that is not the case, it is a very important development but in the right hands and not as a tool that will lead to - yet another - round of disappointment in the 'war on cancer'. The whole thread has devolved into people arguing from hope rather than from facts. This set of tests is a very useful thing to have. But the 50% true positive rate, 18% true positive rate for stage I cancers and the false positive rate combined make it at present - as far as I understand this - a tool that could when used as a mass screening tool easily do more harm than good.

I'm more than willing to be convinced otherwise but with relevant data. FWIW I've been following this particular development closely because it has direct implications for a start-up that I have had a lot of contact with that is also in the early detection space and they were adamant that the combination of factors is such - and so complex - that test accuracy is trumped significantly by absence of symptoms in otherwise healthy patients.

Your input on this would be greatly appreciated.

my input is that I've been involved with GRAIL since the beginning and I think they've actually done something. We don't have the data to say one way or the other.

I am not arguing with most of your points, it's just that you're not being epistemically humble. I find it's far better to just act humble even when you aare schooling people who persist on believing in magic.

Fair enough.

I sincerely hope that this test will drive down the cost of testing and that they will get the kinks ironed out, I think it is a major development and I'm actually afraid that those that oversell it will cause it to end up being tainted, as has happened with many other cancer related diagnostics and potential treatments. Cancer seems to bring out an emotional response rather than a rational one, typically because almost all of us have direct knowledge of one or more people in our environment that succumbed to it.

A lot of work has been done since this development was first announced and there are still quite a few kinks that will need to be ironed out. The whole idea - such as promoted in this thread by some - that this makes cancer a matter of 'simply looking at the right organ' is so laughably oversimplifying reality that some balance is required, and I think at some point my irritation got the better of me.

So thank you for pointing that out.

And to add to that: It definitely is not my intention to suggest that this test is without value.