Re:Apple Daily: Hong Kong pro-democracy paper announces closure
by yourapostasy on Thursday June 24, 2021 @01:22AM
(#27614228)
> Would China stop at Taiwan?
Guesses follow. Mainly based upon my suspicion Chinese are falling into the curse of empires. Similar to how a billionaire will ascribe fiscal success to acumen in other fields. But on a national scale. This is extremely atypical of China’s history, but here we are with them rattling a bunch of their regional neighbors.
If they invade Taiwan, they won’t likely stop at Taiwan. But they probably won’t take another bite for a generation or so.
> If not where would they invade next?
Either Korea (both) or Japan. India antics are a feint. They’ll opportunistically “regent” Pakistan if a Pakistani collapse falls into their lap. If whatever they attempt after a successful Taiwan invasion is also successful, they’ll want a rematch with Vietnam.
> Where does the US draw the line?
From the Alaskan rhetoric, China is indicating they strongly suspect the US won’t ever draw a line as long as China continues to slowly bleed out the US. Doesn’t matter what US will do. China sets the cadence, it matters what China will do.
> Where would the US have the best chance of making a decisive stand?
Best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago. Next best time is today.
> Taiwan, unfortunately, is not easily defended from China.
With several hundred fusion bombs hypersonically delivered, a ham sandwich is defensible. Taiwan doesn’t need to mount a defense that convinces China that Taiwan will win. Taiwan just needs to convince China that China will lose, too.
Guesses follow. Mainly based upon my suspicion Chinese are falling into the curse of empires. Similar to how a billionaire will ascribe fiscal success to acumen in other fields. But on a national scale. This is extremely atypical of China’s history, but here we are with them rattling a bunch of their regional neighbors.
If they invade Taiwan, they won’t likely stop at Taiwan. But they probably won’t take another bite for a generation or so.
> If not where would they invade next?
Either Korea (both) or Japan. India antics are a feint. They’ll opportunistically “regent” Pakistan if a Pakistani collapse falls into their lap. If whatever they attempt after a successful Taiwan invasion is also successful, they’ll want a rematch with Vietnam.
> Where does the US draw the line?
From the Alaskan rhetoric, China is indicating they strongly suspect the US won’t ever draw a line as long as China continues to slowly bleed out the US. Doesn’t matter what US will do. China sets the cadence, it matters what China will do.
> Where would the US have the best chance of making a decisive stand?
Best time to plant a tree is 30 years ago. Next best time is today.
> Taiwan, unfortunately, is not easily defended from China.
With several hundred fusion bombs hypersonically delivered, a ham sandwich is defensible. Taiwan doesn’t need to mount a defense that convinces China that Taiwan will win. Taiwan just needs to convince China that China will lose, too.