Where I live, at least 25% of lead climbers do at least some trad climbing (there's just so much of it in Squamish and you'd be missing out on most of the multi pitch if you're just doing sport).

But for argument's sake, let's say 5%. That's still 5% of climbers who are likely to spend more in a year on equipment than 99% of people who play soccer ever will. That's why I'm saying it's a sizable industry when you look at what people are spending.

Ya but Squamish is world class and has tons of beginner friendly single pitch, so I'd expect that.

I think your overestimating the profit margins on climbing gear (very thin) and underestimating the popularity of soccer (think every school has 20 kids buying expensive cleats that are mass produced).

This year will be a big pivot moment for the sport. Next month, 100s of millions of people are going to watch Olympic climbing. The speed climbing will definitely be front page news all around the world, just because people have never seen anything like it. Everyone's going to want to get down their local climbing gym and give climbing a go. But, you're correct - very few will end up outdoors. I hope that those that do are safe!