I was intriguided by this so tried to find more. I found this simulator of death by unnatural causes. They estimate the life expectancy (in the USA) to 8938 years. You can also re run the simulation. Would love to see this for various countries.
Given an indefinite amount of time the probability of dying by murder, suicide, neglect, natural disaster, or the heat death of the universe trend towards 100%. Even digital or biological copies suffer from the same probability, and aren’t true immortality anyway. The talk of literal immortality “in this world” is so improbable it’s ridiculous and smacks of desperation.
Apparently, it’s because our perception of time is relative. At 5 years old, 1 year feels like a long time because it’s 20% of our lives. But 1 year at 30 years old is a much smaller fraction.
Statistically if I remember the half-life of people dying from random accidents is somewhere around 300-500 years, although presumably the level of technology required to completely cure aging would presumably make that number larger.