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Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by addicted on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:24PM (#27532411)
Inflation isn’t a bad thing.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by infamouscow on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:48PM (#27532676)
The price of groceries going up is a good thing?
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mullingitover on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:07PM (#27532876)
Inflation means that wages go up along with the prices of groceries, so it's a wash. The only thing that suffers with inflation is a big pile of cash, which poor people don't have (they generally owe a big pile of cash, which inflation shrinks for them).

The people trying to scare everyone about inflation are the ones who the poor people owe the big pile of cash, and they have a very large megaphone.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mindslight on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:11PM (#27532919)
Poor people don't have standing debts but rather revolving ones, and so their debt scales with inflation. The rich don't have piles of cash, they buy assets instead. Inflation hoses the middle class who wants to save in cash, which is part of why the middle class is vanishing - extreme monetary inflation to counteract the ever-growing deflation inherent to technological progress.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mullingitover on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:46PM (#27533274)
> Inflation hoses the middle class who wants to save in cash

Can you point me to some middle class people who are just sitting on a huge pile of cash? I'm a pretty standard middle class person and the vast majority of my net worth is tied up in a 401k, and if it wasn't there it'd be in a house that would be seriously outpacing inflation.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mindslight on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @05:36PM (#27533748)
A house and 401k are both illiquid and thus irrelevant to your economic bargaining power. If you're upper-middle class then sure your liquid funds might be in a brokerage account, but if you're lower-middle it's likely just a savings account where you're working on building an emergency fund.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mullingitover on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @06:19PM (#27534111)
I can get liquidity out of my 401k trivially by borrowing against it. A home equity loan takes a bit more time but it's also simple to do. If you're lower middle class you most likely don't have any money in your savings account at all[1], but you do have debt which gets diluted by inflation.

Also, to your earlier point:

> Poor people don't have standing debts but rather revolving ones, and so their debt scales with inflation.

So at worst that's a wash.

[1] https://abcnews.go.com/US/10-americans-struggle-cover-400-em...

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by lp0_on_fire on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:15PM (#27532962)
we have 40 years of data showing that wages _haven't_ been keeping up with inflation.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mullingitover on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:42PM (#27533246)
Nope, this has been brought up before and it's wrong. The data shows wages are not keeping up with productivity gains, they are actually flat with inflation.

Now I agree having all the benefits from productivity gains going to the people who aren't working for them is some bullshit, but that's not the same as wages going down when you account for inflation.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by splitstud on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:51PM (#27533321)
Sweet summer child
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by BitwiseFool on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:51PM (#27532709)
There's this weird dichotomy in Economics where what's good for "The Economy" is often bad for you, the individual. And vice versa. This isn't true for everything, of course, but I've definitely noticed it whenever you hear stories about inflation, the price of gas, wages going up, the dollar being 'strong', etc.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by shakezula on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:05PM (#27532862)
Yes, economically it likely is. Its your stagnating wages that are a bad thing. If wages had increased like they should've, then a few dollar increase in your groceries wouldn't be the issue that it is.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by NikolaeVarius on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:05PM (#27532861)
The value of debts also go down.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by imNotTheProb on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:30PM (#27532472)
To my 1 year old with $1000 it is.

To a college kid with savings from teenage jobs, it is.

To people who's wages didn't go up, it is.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by gred on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:47PM (#27532665)
Inflation is good for institutions with $27 trillion debts, like the US government.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by infamouscow on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:49PM (#27532697)
The US government could tax the population at 100% of GDP and it wouldn't make a dent in the national debt. Also the US government can print it's own money.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by imtringued on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @06:35PM (#27534249)
>The US government could tax the population at 100% of GDP and it wouldn't make a dent in the national debt.

Actually, it would cause the debt to GDP ratio to go up as taxable income shrinks. See Greece.

Paying off debt while everyone and their dog is saving money like crazy is foolish.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by AlexandrB on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:51PM (#27532718)
Inflation is good for anyone with debt, which includes most of the US population. (Assuming that wages rise to match inflation, of course)
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by xapata on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:48PM (#27532684)
Wages are part of inflation. That's why the same CEO's complaining about inflation are complaining that they "can't" hire staff.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by caycep on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:39PM (#27532562)
context is always important. It's bad if wages are also kept stagnant (and maybe artificially so by whoever's employing those people).

For your 1 year old, it's not a problem if that $1000 is invested in say an S&P fund

If you hold a mortgage, it can potentially be good...

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by BitwiseFool on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:50PM (#27532700)
It's not like the banks and lenders aren't wise to the idea of mortgage's getting reduced by inflation. They calculate and compensate for inflation and make offers accordingly.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by mason55 on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:59PM (#27533403)
It's an interesting relationship.

The banks take the current interest rate from the Fed into account and base the mortgage rate on that. They can try to project out and add some percentage for risk + inflation but if they add too much then there are 100 other banks ready to undercut them.

So you get a fixed-rate mortgage based on the current interest rate from the central bank. And the amount of money that your mortgage covers (basically the price of your house) doesn't change. Which means that every year, as inflation causes wages to go up, you are paying for a house that cost whatever it cost when you bought it.

But! Most people shop for houses based on what they can afford as an all-in payment. To put it another way, people can afford $x/month on housing, and it doesn't matter to them really how much is going to the price of the house and how much is going to interest. If interest rates rise (which happens along with inflation) then that means the percentage of someone's monthly payment that goes to the price of the house goes down, which has a depressing effect on housing prices. So your house payment becomes more affordable but the amount you can expect to get when you sell your house goes down (or rises more slowly).

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by AlexandrB on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:09PM (#27532903)
I think this has cause and effect somewhat backwards.

Often mortgage rates are based on the interest rate set by the central bank ("prime"). So if inflation is rampant and the central bank increases the prime rate to try to reduce inflation, variable mortgage interest rates will also increase. In the US, however, it's possible to get 25 year fixed rate mortgages. With the prime rate being so low, these can be had for 2-3%. This is very low! If many on HN are to be believed regarding a coming inflationary crisis this kind of mortgage will be hugely advantageous to those that have one because the debt will be massively devalued by rampant inflation.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by syshum on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:53PM (#27532730)
wages rarely keep up with inflation, real inflation, most companies are till running on 1-2% COLA annually, that is far far lower than actual inflation was, and much lower than inflation is now

This is on the back of many companies having a wage freeze in 2020 due to the pandemic

This is also why you will see alot of companies having a turn over crisis as switching employers will not be more profitable for employee's than every before. I see every limited signs that the HR dept's at most companies even recognize this problem currently, and the few that due are powerless to stop it because it seems many companies just refuse to give large annual raises to current staff but will happily replace them at high rates.

This is with out even getting started on the Time bomb of SocSec, as they also have not kept payments up to meet inflation largely because they can not. there is no money to fund it. So if your retired depending on SocSec income for your survival you are screwed, better hope you have family you can live with

>If you hold a mortgage, it can potentially be good...

Hold debt is only good if you wages go up more than inflation. While sure you may pay less for the home itself, you repair and maintenance expenses are going up... Right now, some repair and maintenance cost for home ownership are leading inflation by ALOT

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by WillPostForFood on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:26PM (#27533081)
For your 1 year old, it's not a problem if that $1000 is invested in say an S&P fund

In the 1970's when the US had stagflation, S&P inflation adjusted returns from ~1968 to 1982. If you bought in 1968 you wouldn't really show gains until the early 1990s.

https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-dat...

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by WillPostForFood on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:21PM (#27533037)
To my 1 year old with $1000 it is.

Inflation is going to make that $1000 worth less unless your 1 yr old is a great investor. If they have any tips, pass them on. I some cash and no freaking idea how to protect the value.

To a college kid with savings from teenage jobs, it is.

See above inflation is tough on savings. Might be good for a young adult with college debt that can be paid back with inflated dollars.

To people who's wages didn't go up, it is.

Only if wages rise faster than prices. Wages often trail prices in high inflation environments. In extreme scenarios, prices can go up in restaurants and stores every day, but wages may only go up after a pay period, or after yearly review.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by doggosphere on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:44PM (#27532632)
Inflation is absolutely a "bad" thing in the same way that gaining weight from eating ice cream is "bad". It is the consequence of indulgence. An increase in the cost of living is generally never a "good" thing.

The question is if it is controlled and the tradeoffs worthwhile.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by xapata on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:47PM (#27532668)
No, inflation is more like the weight gain of a child growing to an adult. The metaphor breaks down at adulthood.

> An increase in the cost of living is generally never a "good" thing.

Inflation is only an increase in nominal, not real cost. If I give you a dollar more and charge you a dollar extra, then you haven't lost any purchasing power.

Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by xapata on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @05:31PM (#27533702)
That's been true since the 70s, but it's not an intrinsic feature of inflation. In fact, this time it may be different, and that's what all the CEOs are complaining about.
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by cheeseomlit on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @04:36PM (#27533182)
But I'm not getting a dollar more, I'm just getting charged a dollar extra. Wages will never actually keep up with inflation, they certainly haven't thus far. In part because government inflation statistics are not trustworthy
Re:Federal Reserve Now Projects Rate Increases in 2023 as Ec... by xapata on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @05:32PM (#27533719)
Government inflation statistics do report that wages have inflated more slowly than a consumption basket since the 70s, on average.

If you want to talk about consumer price inflation as distinct from wage inflation, do so, but be specific.