Well-behaved bubbles often make history

Re:Well-behaved bubbles often make history by fridif on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @01:41AM (#27525270)

The reason I and my colleagues are seemingly changing jobs often is because:

1) newJob pays more than oldJob

2) oldJob is becoming unstable, toxic, and will likely be firing us all in 6 months, so better to leave early and start the clock over

In a world where we remain at oldJob til the end, we risk 6 months of that extra pay differential, plus we now have to job hunt while technically not being employed

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Re:Well-behaved bubbles often make history by repsilat on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @01:54AM (#27525336)

I think both points fit the "job market is healthy" description -- (1) explicitly has `newJob`, (2) implicitly assumes `newJob` in its faith in starting over. Conversely, if jobs were scarce it's plausible many of those changes wouldn't happen. Arguable in the case of "toxic" workplaces, though.

Bringing this back to shaker8's point about financial risks, I think these kinds of job changes mostly point to systemic resiliency, not fragility.

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Re:Well-behaved bubbles often make history by fridif on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @03:47AM (#27525976)

Interesting ideas. I suppose we can say the US job market is healthier than Spain's, because unemployment in the US is low, and the pay/expense ratio is good enough. In Spain, unemployment is very high, and the pay/expense ratio is not very good.

But imagine if the US job market changed to this scenario: still the pay is high, still the expenses are low, still the jobs are available, but you have to change jobs every week. That would signal two things:

1) Employers are suddenly finding it advantageous to rid themselves of workers on short notice

2) Time and money are being wasted interviewing people and onboarding them rather than letting them work for sustained periods

I think such a system, while still "healthy" because workers are still employed and paid similarly, is "less healthy" than a system where the workers can expect the duration of their work at one employer to be longer than 1 year

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Re:Well-behaved bubbles often make history by sharker8 on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @10:02AM (#27528578)

No, the pay/expense ratio is not good at a global level. The odds of making it to an 'early' retirement at age 60 at 50k per year and saving 20k are very low. The odds at 150k saving 50k are equally low. This is because the net worth required to move to passive income, due to ZIRP, has gone way up.

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Re:Well-behaved bubbles often make history by sharker8 on Wednesday June 16, 2021 @10:00AM (#27528566)

Based on these comments I believe everyone here is talking about the resiliency of the tech job market. I'm talking about the resiliency of the job market in the US, and the job market globally, what are sometimes called 'semi-skilled' jobs (a truly brutal term but hopefully that helps people get it). Even this doublespeak about talking about resiliency of markets implies a certain amount of dogma about how markets, not people, need to be resilient. If the market is resilient, it will somehow trickle down to ordinary folk.

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