Understood. So even with the Lightning Network Bitcoin will not be able to keep up with the transactions and transacting in it will be extraordinarily expensive.
Currently block fees are 5% of the block reward. In 2024 when the next halvening occurs, either Bitcoin needs to double in price by then or the block fee will have to make up 45% of the gap, which is an increase in almost 10x, from $4.5/transaction to $40. If it fails to do this miners on the margin will stop mining and the security of the network will diminish.
The 1MB limit makes it highly likely that there will always be a backlog of transactions even post reward world.