> Once new mills are open

That's assuming someone wants to open one. The demand was spiked by the pandemic which is subsiding. According to the article a new mill take 2 years and technology impacted by the microprocessor shortage.

Lumber prices are already falling from the record high. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lumber-prices-post-biggest-ev...

Stock prices of biggest mill now more than 20% off peak.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/WFG?p=WFG&.tsrc=fin-srch

Which makes sense give the vaccine rollout and lessening of pandemic restrictions.

Did you read the article? The problems actually started before the pandemic.

Yes and we're exacerbated by the pandemic. The article said mills lowered production assuming there would be reduced demand during the pandemic but there was increased because people were stuck at home doing projects.

Now that the pandemic waining and people are heading back out, is it not safe to assume some of that demand will be subsiding?

Long dated lumber futures are cheaper than short dated lumber futures. This means the market is betting on lumber prices decreasing. The market is not always correct though.

> Seems like a regular run-of-the-mill supply and demand mismatch.

Pun intended?