I am not too sure. When you recruit in really small pools (say 10 devs in a town) and score one of the worst engineers in the pool the next one to recruit is probably better. You don't have that effect in big pools where the untried pool share is almost still the same.
Also if the recruiting is worse than chance (quite common in my experience), having a bigger pool is worse and you ideally want one qualified candidate.
Holy cow! People switch jobs when offered smaller raises than that.
That's crazy - where on the outskirts of London did you live? Birmingham?
[1] https://bmmagazine.co.uk/in-business/londoners-commute-74-mi...
[1] https://goo.gl/maps/UcNQmsbTE5Q3ni5c8 [2] https://goo.gl/maps/aFJ2Ut1ZLgmNGN266
Let's just say I have mixed feelings about the pandemic
I quickly learned to cope by making full use of the company provided gym: I'd leave at 5am and spend 3 hours at the gym doing stretches, exercising, watching TV on my phone, and going to the sauna/steam rooms (daily! it was amazing). Since everyone was in the same boat wrt traffic, we'd all take a long lunch most days and leave later, like 7-8pm which made evening traffic more managable. Most weekends I'd drive 3 hours one way to visit family anyway so I got used to it.
Like I said, I have mixed feelings about the pandemic. Getting 3-4 hours of my life back each day has been incredible. Never going back to any commute.
In the UK I'm starting to see a push to get back into the office by the media. Stories about how "most" people want to go back into the office, which goes strongly against what I've heard from colleagues (which, to be fair is only tech people). I've heard the argument about being trapped in a small home/flat can be an issue, especially with kids, so I can see that being a driver to get back in the office.
Some more management and sales type people have told me quick communication face to face is missing with remote working, but for me, an information worker, I value not being interrupted every 10 mins. I can put my slack on DnD and block out mornings or afternoons for deep work.
I lived in the outskirts of London and commuted in for a long time when I was getting started in this career. Now I'm 10 years in, I'm over spending £650/$900 a month on a train ticket, spending 1h 30m each way to commute in and then spending £10 on lunch every day. At home I can cook good, cheap, home cooked meals. I can go for a walk at lunch time and start and finish when I want to, as long as work is complete.
People have also told me they miss social time in the office. I'm more introverted, so I miss this much less, but if it's a big loss, maybe you need to socialise more outside of work.
Now, 18 months into COVID, I have decided I never want to go back into an office, if I can help it. I know not everyone can do this, but for me, I've committed so much that I've moved away from London up to the North of England. I want to continue to arbitrage between London tech rates and cheaper locations as long as I can.
I'm sorry to say but I think most big cities will keep a significant loss of visitors. Those that can move will do. The brain drain from a country into capital cities I feel is reversing, and I think it's for the best. We can help revitalise smaller areas and tech like the internet, video calls and the acceptance of things like Slack will power it.
So right now, I think its a battle between employers and staff. Employers mostly want people back in the office (for some reason, I'm still not sure why), and most employees want to be remote, or at least have the option. Who will break first is the big question. An employer willing to hire from a bigger pool of people is bound to, over time, gain a competitive edge.