Re:DeepMind says reinforcement learning is ‘enough’ to reach...
by marcescence on Thursday June 10, 2021 @04:36AM
(#27458392)
A quote from datscilly, the top forecaster on metaculus:
>AGI may never happen, but the chance of that is small enough that adjusting for that here will not make a big difference (I put ~10% that AGI will not happen for 500 years or more, but it already matches that distribution quite well).[1]
[1]:https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/hQysqfSEzciRazx8k/forecastin...
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/create/
EDIT: bunch of other related predictions currently open:
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&sear...
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/?order_by=-activity&sear...