Ok, essentially you’re saying the real number of cases is higher than the official numbers reported, because the official numbers only report ones confirmed by tests, and there are many people who got Covid and were never tested.

I think most on HN would agree with your assessment that the real number of cases are somewhat higher than the official count, although I haven’t seen any evidence indicating exactly how much higher or lower. The Dakota states did seem to taper off cases immensely before the vaccines were distributed, indicating a possible early herd immunity.