In my experience, statistical modeling of potential timelines is not the bottleneck to accurate quotes: it’s the ability to actually give good guesses for “min time” and “max time” on critical tasks. I.e. the majority of timeline variability is due to just a few “tasks” that totally blow out of proportion because I underestimated how much work was actually involved. Idk, maybe that’s just me.

It would be nice to track my estimates vs actual time spent to improve the “human error” part.