Re:The Big Alien Theory
by simiones on Wednesday June 02, 2021 @05:46AM
(#27366755)
But the problem here is that the paper is obviously concluding too much from too little data.
Their basic argument is right, but useless: it's true that, over all sentients in the universe, the sentients thinking they are on one of the most populous planets are more likely to be right; but there is no way to estimate what that likelihood is until you found out the actual distribution.
So basically, to have any predictive power whatsoever, the argument depends entirely on the other arguments about the possible distributions, which are all bogus given how little we understand about what other forms of life are possible, and the extremely little we understand about what forms of life can develop human-like intelligence .
Their basic argument is right, but useless: it's true that, over all sentients in the universe, the sentients thinking they are on one of the most populous planets are more likely to be right; but there is no way to estimate what that likelihood is until you found out the actual distribution.
So basically, to have any predictive power whatsoever, the argument depends entirely on the other arguments about the possible distributions, which are all bogus given how little we understand about what other forms of life are possible, and the extremely little we understand about what forms of life can develop human-like intelligence .